27th March 2025 – (New York) The cryptocurrency community is buoyed by increasing expectations for the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025. Current sentiment on Polymarket indicates an 87% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot XRP ETF by year-end.
This optimism has been significantly bolstered by Ripple’s recent legal victory in its protracted battle against the SEC. With the lawsuit now withdrawn, investors believe the major hurdles to Ripple’s institutional adoption have been effectively cleared.
Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, expressed on X that the approval of an XRP ETF is imminent, stating it is merely a “matter of time” before the SEC gives its nod. He anticipates that major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity will play a role in offering the asset.
Geraci further noted that should XRP secure regulatory approval from the SEC, it could see substantial adoption, positioning it as the next altcoin to achieve an ETF after Ethereum. Currently, XRP ranks fourth in the cryptocurrency market by capitalisation, just $2 billion shy of overtaking Tether for third place.
Analysts echo Geraci’s sentiments, highlighting that the prevailing optimism aligns with a shift in SEC policy towards a more crypto-friendly stance under the current U.S. administration. An XRP ETF would enable traditional investors to gain exposure to XRP through regulated financial instruments, fostering adoption and enhancing demand, liquidity, and price stability.
Approval of an XRP ETF would mark a significant milestone for Ripple and the wider cryptocurrency market, serving as an onboarding mechanism for institutional investors, akin to the impact seen with Bitcoin ETFs. This would allow investors to access positive exposure to XRP without the need to hold the tokens directly, alleviating concerns related to storage, security, and regulatory compliance. Furthermore, it would lend legitimacy to XRP, solidifying its position as a key asset in the crypto landscape.
Nonetheless, while Polymarket assigns an 87% chance of XRP ETF approval by the end of the year, the platform itself faces controversy, including accusations of a governance attack involving a whale holder of Universal Market Access (UMA) tokens. This controversy erupted following a $7 million bet regarding a potential agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine, raising questions about the reliability of certain prediction markets, despite Polymarket’s established track record for forecasting accuracy.
