“Today, Ripple moves forward—stronger than ever. This landmark case set a precedent for the domestic crypto industry. With the SEC dropping its appeal, Ripple is now in the driver’s seat and we’ll evaluate how best to pursue our cross appeal. Regardless, today is a day to celebrate this victory.”
The Final Judgment and Ripple’s Cross-Appeal
Alderoty’s statement hints at Ripple’s next move: challenging Judge Torres’ Final Judgment.
In October 2024, Ripple responded to the SEC’s Notice of Appeal by filing a cross-appeal, seeking to overturn specific rulings in the case. In August 2024, Judge Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million penalty for violating US securities laws and granted the SEC injunction relief, requiring Ripple to comply with US securities laws.
Speculation about a potential settlement intensified before Wednesday’s announcement. Reducing or vacating the fine would strengthen Ripple’s financial position while reversing the injunction would grant Ripple greater freedom in selling XRP to institutional investors.
Pro-crypto lawyer Jeremy Hogan summarized the events of the day:
“The SEC has apparently dropped its appeal, but we don’t know if Ripple agreed to the same. This means, as far as negative outcomes, the judgment from Judge Torres is the WORST it can get ($125m plus injunction). “
SEC vs. Ripple: Cross-Appeal or Settlement?
Hogan outlined four potential scenarios regarding Judge Torres’ Final Judgment, where Ripple:
- Continues its appeal, and we get a ruling from an appellate court on whether investment contracts require contracts, etc…
- Agrees to drop its appeal, jurisdiction returns to the trial court, and the parties attempt to amend the judgment.
- Agrees to drop its appeal, and the parties enter into an agreement between them without trying to amend the judgment.
- Just pays the $125 million and moves on.
Bill Morgan recently suggested that even if Ripple and the SEC settled, Judge Torres might still uphold the penalty and injunction. While the third option may be the simplest, the second option could offer the cleanest resolution from Ripple’s perspective.
XRP Price Outlook: Cross-Appeal and ETF Prospects
On Wednesday, March 19, XRP soared 11.46%, reversing Tuesday’s 2.31% loss to close at $2.5482. XRP outperformed the broader market, which gained 4.76%, taking the total crypto market cap to $2.8 trillion.
While news of the SEC dropping its appeal fueled a breakout, uncertainty surrounding Ripple’s cross appeal plans kept XRP below $3. Nevertheless, the SEC’s decision to drop its appeal has paved the way for an XRP-spot ETF market.
An XRP-spot ETF market could drive institutional demand for XRP, similar to flows into the BTC-spot ETF market. Since its launch in January 2024, the US BTC-spot ETF market has recorded total net inflows of $35.659 billion, fueling BTC’s surge to an all-time high of $109,312.
Key factors influencing XRP’s price outlook:
- Ripple Cross-Appeal Strategy: A settlement could drive XRP past $3.55, while legal uncertainty might push it below $2.
- XRP-Spot ETF Prospects: Approval could trigger institutional inflows, supporting a move toward $5. However, legal challenges could delay the process.
- Macro Risks: Rising trade tensions and US recession fears could drag XRP to its February low of $1.7938. Conversely, easing tensions and a resilient US economy could drive XRP toward $3.
