In August 2024, Judge Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million penalty for violating Section 5 of the US Securities Act. Judge Torres also granted the SEC’s request for an injunction, prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors. Vacating the injunction order could be crucial to Ripple’s US expansion goals and XRP’s broader adoption.
Settlement speculation gained traction in March. Pro-crypto lawyer James ‘MetaLawMan’ Murphy commented on Judge Torres’ injunction order and fine:
“BUT. The (a) finding of securities law violations and the (b) injunction (with attendant “bad boy” provisions) are not so great for Ripple.”
Former Fox Business journalist and Crypto America host Eleanor Terrett reported that Ripple’s legal team was:
“Negotiating more favorable terms regarding the August district court ruling, which imposed a $125M fine on the company and included a permanent injunction preventing the company from selling XRP to institutional investors.”
A favorable outcome could open the floodgates to XRP adoption, especially through Ripple’s cross-border payment network. On March 21, reports surfaced that SWIFT was nearing an agreement with Ripple to use XRP for cross-border payments. According to reports, a SWIFT agreement could see billions of XRP locked in escrow as liquidity reserves, shifting supply-demand dynamics firmly in XRP’s favor.
XRP Price Trends: Regulatory Action, Adoption, and Spot ETFs
XRP’s near-term trajectory remains tied to:
- Ripple’s cross-appeal strategy.
- The outcome of settlement negotiations.
- The potential approval of XRP-spot ETFs.
Potential Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: A favorable settlement and a SWIFT partnership could drive XRP past its all-time high of $3.5505. Approval of XRP-spot ETFs could further fuel institutional demand, pushing prices toward $5.
- Bearish Scenario: If settlement talks break down, Ripple pursues its cross-appeal, SWIFT deal stalls, or the SEC rejects XRP-spot ETFs, XRP could drop below $1.50.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
After a three-day losing streak, XRP sits below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating lingering resistance, but it holds above the 200-day EMA, signaling long-term support.
If XRP breaks above the 50-day EMA, the bulls may target the March 19 high of $2.5925. A return to $2.5925 could signal a move toward the January 16 high of $3.3999. Favorable settlement news may bring the all-time high of $3.5505 into sight.
Conversely, an XRP drop below $2.2 may bring the $1.9299 support level and the 200-day EMA into play.
With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 49.72, XRP could fall below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
