29th March 2025 – (New York) XRP’s price and on-chain activity have remained stagnant, even following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to drop its appeal against Ripple. The increasing supply of XRP may exert downward pressure on its price if demand does not rise. Analysts warn that the cryptocurrency could decline further to $1.35 should it confirm a Head and Shoulders pattern.
On Friday, Ripple’s XRP saw a 7% drop, largely influenced by bearish macroeconomic factors, including tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and rising inflation in the United States. This downward trend could intensify if XRP’s on-chain activity does not improve alongside its increasing supply.
Like many cryptocurrencies, XRP has been significantly affected by Trump’s tariff threats, experiencing a 35% decline from its January peak of $3.40. This downturn contrasts sharply with the over 500% surge it experienced from late 2024 into early January.
Despite the SEC’s announcement about dropping its appeal, which many expected would boost XRP’s price, the cryptocurrency has remained flat, as investors had already factored in this outcome. The new SEC administration’s decision to conclude several legal cases against crypto firms has added to the muted market response.
Currently, it is uncertain whether XRP will replicate its previous quarter’s performance, given the lack of supportive factors for price increases in the near term and declining on-chain activity.
Whale investors appear to have diminished their activity, with transaction volumes trending back to levels seen before the US elections. Additionally, XRP exchange reserves on major platforms like Binance and Upbit have remained relatively stable since early March, suggesting low accumulation or distribution activity.
On the derivatives front, XRP’s open interest is gradually recovering, increasing to 1.75 billion XRP from a monthly low of 1.35 billion XRP, according to Coinglass data. However, supply-side pressures may lead to further declines if demand does not pick up in the coming months. Ripple continues to unlock 1 billion XRP from its escrow each month, with around 33% of the unlocked supply entering the market gradually. This has contributed to a sharp rise in circulating supply, which increased from 54 billion to 58 billion XRP over the past year.
In the last 24 hours, XRP experienced $24.89 million in futures liquidations, with long positions accounting for $23.63 million and shorts for $1.26 million. The token fell below the support level of $2.34, recording a 7% loss over the daily timeframe.
XRP is at risk of validating a Head and Shoulders pattern if it breaches the $1.96 support level, just below the psychological threshold of $2.00. Such a breach could lead XRP towards the $1.35 support level. Conversely, if bulls defend the $1.96 support—where they have successfully done so six times since last December—XRP could rebound.
Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have fallen below neutral levels, signalling increasing bearish momentum. A daily close above $2.60 would invalidate the bearish outlook and could propel XRP towards the $2.78 resistance level.
