“Central banks think policy is tight and want to cut gradually. If employment cracks, they will cut fast. If employment bounces, they will cut less. Two months ago, bonds were pricing a strong possibility of falling behind the curve. Now the recession skew is gone, yields are up. That is not bearish risk assets and it doesn’t mean the Fed has screwed up,” Dario Perkins, managing direction, global macro at TS Lombard, said in a note to clients on Oct. 17.
