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BTC-Spot-ETF Market Outflow Impact on Bitcoin Demand
On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) extended its losing streak to three sessions as investors continued to recoil from Wednesday’s hawkish Fed economic projections. Notably, the hawkish Fed rate path outlook impacted demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, pulling BTC back from the crucial $95k level.
According to Farside Investors:
- On Monday, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $146 million.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had net outflows of $38.4 million.
Excluding flow data for BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $258.2 million. Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market faces its longest outflow streak since early October. The latest flow trend underscores the Fed’s influence on BTC demand.
MicroStrategy Counters US-BTC Spot ETF Outflows
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder and chairman Michael Saylor announced the firm’s latest BTC purchase, stating,
“MicroStrategy has acquired 5,262 BTC for ~ $561 million at ~ $106,662 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 47.4% QTD and 73.7% YTD. As of 12/22/2024, we hodl 444,262 BTC acquired for ~ $27.7 billion at ~ $62,257 per bitcoin.”
The acquisition coincided with three days of BTC outflows, totaling $1,207 million, leaving the supply-demand balance in deficit. Notably, the BTC purchase followed Saylor’s latest push for a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR).
On Sunday, Saylor stated,
“A strategic digital asset policy can strengthen the US dollar, neutralize the national debt, and position America as the global leader in the 21st-century digital economy—empowering millions of businesses, driving growth, and creating trillions in value.”
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On Monday, December 23, BTC slipped by 0.50%, following Sunday’s 2.26% decline, closing at $94,831.
Near-term BTC price trends will remain hinged on US BTC-spot ETF flows, SBR-related news, and Thursday’s jobless claims data.
Hotter-than-expected US labor market data would support a more hawkish Fed rate path, affecting BTC-spot ETF market flows. Spot ETF market outflows could impact BTC demand, potentially dragging BTC toward the $90,742 support level.
However, an unexpected increase in jobless claims could boost bets on a Q1 2025 Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed rate path and progress toward an SBR may drive spot ETF inflows and BTC toward $100k.
